Texas Conservative Lobbyist News: Romney Nomination Could Mean Low Turnout for Texas Elections
The following analysis is provided by the Texas Lobby Group and is intended for Lobbyists, Government Consultants, Political Activists, Politicians, and others who are interested in the 2012 Texas elections.
Texas may be facing some of the lowest voter turnout numbers in recent memory when we have our primary election in May. No one knows for sure what candidates benefit from or are harmed by low voter turnout. One possibility is that lesser known candidates will be harmed by low voter turnout. Politicians without name recognition may benefit from straight ticket voters who are less apt to turn out for an election without a compelling issue or national candidate.
Texas Redistricting Pushes Election Date
Texas examines its political districts every ten years. We’ve been in that process since 2011 and the redistricting has been tied up in the courts since the end of our last session in the summer of 2011. We’ve been watching the legal battles all year, but finally things are sorted out and we have our primary election date set for May 29th. Normally we vote on Super Tuesday in March, so this May date is a very late one for Texas.
A Late Primary Date in Texas with No Showdown Between Romney and Santorum
Texas conservatives have not been enthusiastic supporters of Mitt Romney and his more moderate views. Santorum has stronger support in the Lone Star State. A primary election with a battle between Romney and Santorum may have driven conservative voters to the polls in greater numbers. But now that Texas is facing a late election – a date that is in conflict with the vacation and travel season – and a race without a compelling national battle, we might see historically low turnouts.
This may be bad news for a number of local races that don’t have the publicity to bring out the voters. Candidates who were counting on strong voter turnout for these local elections will likely be disappointed and find themselves in a worse position than they would have been if we had a March primary when Santorum and Romney were battling it out for the nomination.
From Texas Weekly
Volume 29, Issue 14, 09 April 2012
“The Senate race hasn’t generated that sort of interest outside of the five blocks surrounding the state Capitol…Both major parties told the redistricting courts that delaying primaries would suppress turnout, create confusion and uncertainty, and threaten their convention planning and organization. Looks like they knew what they were talking about.”